AFCON 2024 qualifiers: winners and losers in a chaotic final round

Ghana are out and Comoros soar through qualification for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco

There were so many storylines from every group in qualifying for the AFCON that I decided to write about every single one, enjoy!

Group A

One of our four groups to watch going into the final round of qualifiers, group A did not disappoint.

What on paper should have been a fairly routine qualification for Tunisia turned into a chaotic mess as they needed a last-minute winner away to Madagascar in the penultimate round to secure qualification for next year’s competition. With qualification secured, the Carthage Eagles went on to lose at home to The Gambia.

It’s a heartbreaking loss for The Gambia who have been one of the stories of African football over the last five years. The Gambia were so lowly ranked in 2020 that they had to go through preliminary qualification to even reach the main qualification stage. The Scorpions shocked the world to qualify and went one better in Cameroon in 2021 when they topped their group (with Tunisia) and reached the quarter finals. Despite their performance, they were still so lowly ranked that they had to go through preliminary qualification to qualify again for the 2023 AFCON where they were knocked out of the group stage, leading to iconic head coach Tom Saintfiet departing.

With Saintfiet gone and a dreadful start to World Cup Qualifying, it looked like The Gambian experiment would end but Northern Irishman Jonathan McKinstry has come in to revitalise the young squad and though they failed to qualify for the 2025 AFCON there is still a bright future ahead of the West Africans.

But this international window was all about the Comoros. The archipelagic nation has once again qualified for the AFCON against all the odds in truly fairytale fashion. Ten years ago, the Comoros were playing their first ever competitive fixtures, players had to pay for their own flights and didn’t even have training kits. Now the Coelacanths have topped a difficult qualifying group, are top of their World Cup Qualifying group and have a nation behind the team in a way only bettered by Sudan.

Group B

Six games, six wins, averaging four goals a game while only conceding two in all their qualifiers; yeah Morocco are serious about this AFCON. The Atlas Lions were shocked in the Round of 16 at the previous AFCON when they were beaten by a resolute South Africa but Walid Regragui seems to have put that loss firmly behind them and the wheels are now in motion to win only a second ever AFCON, on home soil.

What was the most impressive in this campaign was the 5-1 dismantling of Gabon away on Friday. It was the perfect showcase of what this team is. They have retained the core of experienced players that shone at the World Cup in Qatar while blooding a new generation of Moroccan stars. Bounou, Aguerd, Hakimi, Mazraoui, Amrabat, Ounahi all pick themselves (six of their back seven) but in Brahim Diaz, Eliesse Ben Sighir, Abde Ezzalzouli and Bilal El Khannous they have a new generation of brilliantly creative attackers. It’s easy to forget they still have Hakim Ziyech to come back from injury.

Despite their thrashing at the hands of Morocco, Gabon cruised to qualification and will be glad to be back where they belong. It is an aging team that is far from the 2012 team that reached the quarterfinals, but with a midfield anchored by the excellent Mario Lemina and players like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Denis Bouanga, they will fancy themselves to reach the knockouts.

Group C

Botswana have done it! The Zebras will be returning to the AFCON for only their second appearance thanks to a brilliant defensive display away in Cairo. Omaatla Kebatho’s scrappy goal was enough to earn the Zebras a crucial draw which kept them one point above Mauritania. It is a truly remarkable achievement for a nation that has drawn almost exclusively from players based in Botswana. Of the starting eleven against Egypt, only Kabelo Seakanyeng and Tumisang Orebonye play their football outside Southern Africa and they both play in Morocco.

Expectations will be low going to Morocco but with Morena Ramoreboli as their new head coach, they have a canny operator who knows how to get big results away in Africa.

For both Mauritania and Cape Verde it is a genuinely devastating result. Both nations have made great strides in the last decade and in Mauritania’s case, truly astronomical ones. Just over a decade ago, Mauritania were the ranked as the third worst footballing nation in the world and now they have been to three AFCONs in a row. But with both teams having good managers in charge and federations that have a clear pathway for recruitment and development, don’t expect both nations to drop off the African scene anytime soon.

Egypt are Egypt. They qualify with minimal fuss but the questions and drama around Mohamed Salah will rise again come the tournament. Will they win the AFCON? Will they be knocked out in the first or second round? Both are equally likely and it’s hard to take too much out of this window given that Salah and new star boy Omar Marmoush were both missing.

Group D

What a strange group. Arguably the easiest group to qualify from but Nigeria made extraordinarily hard work of it. Imagine, if Libya hadn’t taken their shenanigans too far against the Super Eagles and were able to beat them at home, all four teams would be level on eight points.

Instead, despite drawing against Benin and losing at home to Rwanda, Nigeria limped through qualification. This team has some truly brilliant talent and with the likes of Fisayo Dele-Bashiru and Raphael Onyedinka emerging to support Alex Iwobi in midfield, is genuinely balanced and could go one better in Morocco than they did in Côte d'Ivoire and win the whole thing. But with a seemingly incompetent FA and a head coach in Augustin Eguavoen who has been a good servant but is out of his depth, it’s more likely that we see the Super Eagles falter rather than fly.

Benin are returning to the AFCON. Like Gabon, there won’t be much expectation beyond sneaking into the knockouts. But with Steve Mounie always a threat up front and some exciting youngsters in the shape of Junior Olaitan, Andreas Hountondji  and Hassane Imourane, they have plenty to be excited about.

Group E

Like Egypt, Algeria are the masters of meaningless qualification. Unbeaten and with only two goals conceded, they should once again be considered among the favourites for an AFCON in North Africa. The team still needs to solve the problem of integrating a new generation of players while not throwing out the 2019 AFCON winning baby with the bath water. But with Vladimir Petkovic in charge, they have an excellent international manager who should be able to expel the demons of the previous two AFCON debacles.

Despite a disappointing 3-0 loss to Togo, it is remarkable how routinely competitive this Equatorial Guinean side is. Despite playing the entire qualification campaign without talisman and top scorer Emilio Nsue who is serving a FIFA ban, they still managed to find the resilience to comfortably qualify. They may not replicate their sensational AFCON earlier this year where they thrashed the hosts Côte d'Ivoire, but be assured, no big team will want them in their group.

Group F

I have written enough about Ghana’s failures before but if there were any lingering doubts that this federation is in no shape to manage such an iconic nation, then their humiliating home defeat to Niger which put the Black Stars bottom of the group will have settled any debate. Embarrassing.

Similarly with Sudan, I have sung their praises to no end and will write a much longer piece to detail their phenomenal success but suffice to say, this is one of the most impressive feats in modern sport. They have been made homeless as a nation, been based out of three or four different countries across two continents and have seen most of their players play minimal football over the last eighteen months. Despite that, the Jediane Falcons have genuinely united a country in turmoil and brought some semblance of hope to millions of Sudanese.

Meanwhile Angola have continued going about their revolution under Pedro Gonçalves. They went unbeaten in AFCON qualification and are only two points off Cameroon in a tight World Cup qualifying group. They are a well-oiled machine that defend well and have quality in attack. Another AFCON quarter final is not beyond this group.

Group G

Bar a mid-qualification blip where they lost to Sierra Leone and away in Zambia, Côte d'Ivoire seem to have settled under Emerse Faé. They are top of their World Cup qualification and will go into the AFCON in Morocco as outside favourites to retain their title. They still have a ludicrous talent pool, particularly defensively and in the wide positions. Perhaps where they may struggle is with Sébastien Haller dropping out of contention as a starting centre forward, the team is still a bit toothless up front. Much of whether they will solve those attacking issues will perhaps come down to whether young star Karim Konate is able to step up and take on that mantle.

Zambia do seem to have the Ivorians’ number. They beat them 3-0 in the previous AFCON qualifiers and beat them again this international window, without their fearsome front three of Patson Daka, Fashion Sakala and Lameck Banda. Avram Grant has put together a tough defensive unit and if they can get those three firing (or perhaps firing without them) they should expect to improve upon their group stage exit at the previous AFCON.

Group H

DRC certainly took their eye off the ball in this last international window.

Having won four from four without conceding and sewing up qualification already the Leopards were stumped “away” in Guinea (played in Côte d'Ivoire) before rotating heavily and falling to a shock 2-1 loss to already knocked out Ethiopia in a dead rubber. This is still a team building towards good things. Like Angola, DRC have a good project under Sébastien Desabre and an exciting crop of forward players. Another semifinal appearance might be a stretch but this is a team that is capable of beating anyone.

It was across the border in Tanzania where the shock of the group occurred. The Taifa Stars beat Ethiopian “away” in Rwanda before beating Guinea at home in Dar Es Salaam to book their first ever back-to-back AFCON appearance. As more and more countries look towards their diasporas and Europe for answers, Tanzania continues to show a different path as a nearly entirely locally based squad beat a nearly entirely European-based Guinean side.

It will be a big ask for Tanzania to do finally avoid coming bottom of their AFCON group and earn a maiden victory but that won’t deter the East Africans who will surely be more concerned with building a squad that can compete on home soil come 2027 when they host the tournament along with Kenya and Uganda.

Group I

It seems like this AFCON will be the Cosafa AFCON. Seven of the 24 teams at the tournament will be from Southern Africa and Mozambique will be returning to the tournament, hopefully to replicate their brilliant 2023 performance where they earned draws against both Ghana and Egypt. The Mambas booked their place in style, beating fellow Lusophones Guinea-Bissau in Bissau thanks to goals from Stanley Ratifo and Bruno Langa. The team is largely unchanged and are very settled heading into next year’s tournament.

Bar one of the craziest matches in football history, Mali could have gone all the way to win their first ever AFCON in Côte d'Ivoire. On that day it seemed God himself was donning the orange of the Elephants as they came back with just ten men to win, giving us one of the most iconic images of the tournament of Malian head coach Éric Chelle in tears.

Replacing him is Tom Saintfiet, who after a half decade of excellence with The Gambia is finally getting his shot with a top nation. He’s off to a good start with the Malian Eagles. They beat Mozambique and thrashed Eswatini 6-0 to seal their spot in Morocco. With Ibrahima Koné returning from the ankle injury that saw him miss the last AFCON, El-Bilal Touré thriving with Stuttgart and Nene Dorgeles thriving on the wing Mali are very well set to improve upon their finish in Côte d'Ivoire and potentially threaten the top table.

Group J

Whisper it quietly, but Cameroon are actually looking to be in a good place. Yes Samuel Eto’o is still under investigation and the chaos of Marc Brys’ appointment still hangs over the Indomitable Lions, but since he’s got his foot in the door, Brys has been quietly excellent.

Brys has somewhat turned his back on the youthful project that Rigobert Song was building but that seems to have paid off. Old faces like Christian Bassagog Micheal Ngadeu-Ngadjui and Georges-Kevin N'Koudou have all made comebacks and Vincent Aboubakar has continued to excel despite constantly being questioned. He’s now taken his goal tally to 46 for the national side, only 10 behind Samuel Eto’o himself, all while playing for a far weaker Cameroon side.

The second spot in this group heading into the final international window was on offer for the two teams that were banned from playing in the previous AFCON qualifiers, Kenya and Zimbabwe. The Warriors were able to hold out for a draw at home in the key game between the two and book their return to the tournament.

Expectations are low for the Zimbabweans but Micheal Nees has quietly put together a solid team, mixing players from the English diaspora and players born in the country. The midfield trio of Marvelous Nakamba, Andy Rinomhota and Marshall Munetsi is certainly one not to be underestimated and the return of seasoned veteran Khama Billiat has added a bit more quality in the final third.

Group K

It shocked me to realise that by the next international window Hugo Broos will overtake the legendary Clive Barker to become South Africa’s longest serving manager of all time. It perhaps makes sense because Broos has guided Bafana Bafana back to the top of African football, a position they have not occupied since the late Barker led the legendary team of 1996 to their maiden title.

What Broos does better than perhaps anybody on the continent is create a group of committed players that are able to play well above their individual levels. He did it most famously with that Cameroon side in 2017 and he’s doing again with South Africa. He has chosen to almost entirely ignore players playing abroad, including some serious talents like Lyle Foster, instead creating a PSL based side that is neat and tidy on the ball and solid out of possession. They won’t be favourites by any stretch of the imagination but another semi final appearance is not out of the question.

Joining South Africa is the revitalised Uganda team that comfortably qualified with South Africa ahead of Congo-Brazzaville and South Sudan. Uganda are a no nonsense side that will no doubt be in pot four of the AFCON draw, but will be a pot four team that no one wants. Paul Put has created a difficult to beat team that is very functional and physical and with 19 year old Travis Mutyaba announcing himself on the international stage with a lovely goal in Brazzaville this weekend they might have just unearthed an attacking gem.

Group L

Following on from a nation’s most successful and iconic coach is not for the faint hearted, but Pape Thiaw has not put a foot wrong since taking over from Aliou Cissé. The former forward won the African Nations Championship (CHAN) with Senegal and has seamlessly made the transition to the top job, even if only as a caretaker.

Senegal have not lost a single game in 90 minutes in 2024, with the only blip coming in that remarkable loss to Côte d'Ivoire (Mali can relate). Since Thiaw has taken over they have won seven from nine (two draws) and kept clean sheets in all seven of those wins. He has taken the discipline that Cissé instilled in this team and sprinkled a bit more magic in attack. Edouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gueye and Sadio Mané still bring the experience, but Thiaw has been able to blood in the next generation of Senegalese talent like Lamine Camara, Iliman Ndiaye, Malick Diouf and Habib Diarra who scored three goals in the international break from midfield. The Teranga Lions will be right back among the favourites for the AFCON, and it would seem silly not to give Thiaw the job full time given that his audition has been nearly flawless.

Burkina Faso were one of two teams to deny Senegal victory and they return to the AFCON in much the same place they have been for the last decade. Hubert Velud left the side in February and the Federation turned once again to a local coach in the shape of Brama Traoré who has been in the federation for over a decade, mainly coaching the youth sides or assisting with the senior team.

The big question for this side is can it move beyond Bertrand Traoré who has been the star of the show for a decade now? Over the last couple AFCONS we have seen the team try to play through Traoré despite him not being the player he once promised to be. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a great player but with players like Lassina Traoré, Ousseni Bouda, Issa Kaboré and Sacha Banse starting to perform, Traoré should no longer be the sole star of the show.