Four groups that are up for grabs ahead of the final round of AFCON qualifying
As we enter the final games of qualifying for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, there are four groups that still hang in the balance
Group A
It’s been a long fall from grace for Tunisia over the last decade. Throughout the 2010s the Carthage Eagles were one of the mainstays of African football. Despite having a team far more unheralded than their North African counterparts, they not only consistently qualified for AFCONs with ease, but would regularly qualify for the latter stages and were a good bet to upset one of the favourites. In 2019 they reached the semifinals and only lost to Senegal on extra time. In 2022 they had their greatest moments when they beat World Cup holders France in Qatar.
But over the last couple years, as the Wahbi Khazri generation has slowly moved on (seeing Msakni and Jaziri still be the main attacking threats makes me feel old), the national team has struggled to replace the attacking talent it once had. Now, a team that regularly made light work of qualifying for both the AFCON and World Cup are under threat of not qualifying from arguably the weakest group. The Carthage Eagles still are in the driving seat and a win away in Madagascar will seal qualification but if they don’t win in Johannesburg the team could be staring down the barrel of a humiliating exit.
What perhaps sums up the malaise of Tunisia best is the fact that the game against Madagascar will be the first match that Kais Yaâkoubi will take charge of after the federation sacked Faouzi Benzarti just three months into his fourth stint as national team manager.
On the complete opposite end of the spectrum is the Comoros team that got Benzarti sacked when they drew with the Tunisians in Abidjan before beating them on Tunisian soil. Since their maiden AFCON in 2022 where they knocked out Ghana and nearly beat Cameroon without a goalkeeper, the Coelacanths have refreshed the squad. While some of the golden generation that started the Comorian revolution like Fouad Bachirou and Jimmy Abdou have moved on, the country has used its extensive diaspora in France to bring in a batch of exciting young talent like Warmed Omari, Myziane Maolida and Rafiki Saïd who scored the winner in Tunis.
One point behind Comoros is The Gambia who like their East African opponents, posses a youth and vigour that Tunisia would be envious of. Despite their disappointing AFCON performance in January (where the team was lucky to survive the plane ride to Côte d'Ivoire) and the loss of foundation of their success Tom Saintfiet, who has moved over to neighbours Mali, the team has looked to solidify its place as a mid-table African nation. Even the fact that the country could qualify for its third successive AFCON is an extraordinary achievement given that even five years ago South Sudan and the Seychelles would have been their rivals instead of World Cup competing sides like Tunisia.
Whether or not Tunisia seal qualification today with a win against Madagascar, tomorrow’s match between The Gambia and Comoros is essential viewing as one of the matches of the round.
Games to watch:
The Gambia vs Comoros: Friday 15th, 19:00 GMT
Tunisia vs The Gambia: Monday 18th, 19:00 GMT
Group C
Cape Verde and Mauritania were two of the stories of the 2023 AFCON earlier this year with both nations thrilling and exceeding expectations in equal measure. Bebé, once considered one of the worst transfers in history gave us one of the moments of the tournament with a 40 yard screamer against Mozambique. The Azure Sharks topped a group with Ghana and Egypt, going unbeaten before knocking out their group C rivals Mauritania and only missing out on the semi-finals because Ronwen Williams turned into Kennedy Mweene and saved four penalties.
Despite being knocked out by Cape Verde in the round of 16 Mauritania’s AFCON journey was equally sensational. The debutants, who ten years previous had been ranked in the bottom three of countries globally, caused perhaps the upset of the tournament when they beat giants Algeria to knock out the 2019 champions in the group stage.
Ten months on, sadly at least one of the two nations will miss out on the next edition of Africa’s greatest tournament. With Egypt in bullish form and already qualified there is just one spot available. And if Botswana beat Mauritania tomorrow, neither team will qualify and it will be the Zebras who will be the surprise package to watch out for in Morocco. The southern African nation is on the verge of qualifying for only their second ever AFCON despite losing their head coach just weeks ahead of the final round of qualifying.
Despite beating Cape Verde twice to put themselves in the driving seat in the last round of qualifiers, head coach Didier Gomes da Rosa (who previously took Mauritania to the 2021 AFCON) had a falling out with the new Botswana federation president Tariq Babitseng, and left to sign with Libyan club Al Ahli Tripoli.
In his place, the federation has hired South African Morena Ramereboli who over the last few years has been working magic with Botswana Premier League side Jwaneng Galaxy where he won two titles as well as twice led the club to the CAF Champions League qualification (only the second team from Botswana to do so) knocking out both Simba and Orlando Pirates in qualifying.
If Botswana beat Mauritania it will be a historic qualification and if they fail to win it sets up the final game between Mauritania and Cape Verde to be an absolute thriller in which both teams will need to win.
Games to watch:
Botswana vs Mauritania: Friday 15th, 13:00 GMT
Mauritania vs Cape Verde: Tuesday 19th, 16:00 GMT
Group F
Undoubtedly the biggest story of AFCON qualification though is Ghana. The Black Stars are on the verge of being knocked out in what will go down as one the biggest shocks and humiliations in AFCON history. That would be some achievement for the Black Stars given that they managed to hit new lows in both the previous two AFCONs, being knocked out by debutants Comoros in 2022 before giving up a 2-0 lead and conceding a last-minute equaliser to draw with Mozambique and crash out of the most recent tournament in Côte d'Ivoire.
What is perhaps even more cruel to a team that has genuine superstars like Mohamed Kudus and Thomas Partey, is that if Sudan win today, Ghana will head into their final two matches of qualification already knowing that their journey is done.
On the flip side, if Sudan even draw with Niger later today it will be an achievement that transcends sport itself.
With the country currently undergoing a civil war that has claimed the lives of more than 15,000 people and displaced more than nine million people, it is unthinkable that the team that finds itself homeless could qualify for the tournament in Morocco. Since the civil war broke out last April, the national team has based itself in Taif, Saudi Arabia and plays its home games in Libya or South Sudan. The majority of players in Sudanese topflight have fled the country with many signing for clubs in Libya. Meanwhile, clubs Al Hilal and Al Meirrikh who make up the majority of the squad have found themselves 4,000 kilometres from home in Mauritania where they have joined the national league.
This group perhaps is not one where any of the games are appointment viewing, but has delivered the two most seismic stories of AFCON qualifying.
Games to watch:
Niger vs Sudan: Thursday 14th, 16:00 GMT
Group H
Saturdays are for the Group H boys.
With no other games happening, eyes will turn to an intriguing group that, depending on results this weekend, could set up a brilliant finale.
DRC have continued their phenomenal form post-AFCON, winning all four of their qualifiers without conceding a single goal. They face their toughest test yet with an “away” trip to Côte d'Ivoire to play a Guinea side led by the competition’s top scorer Serhou Guirassy who has scored five goals in four games.
If Guinea fail to win though, they open the door to Tanzania to cause an upset. The Taifa Stars play just before Guinea and could heap pressure on the Syli National if they beat East African cousins Ethiopia. With the game taking place in Kinshasa instead of Addis Ababa the Tanzanians will fancy themselves to win. If they did and Guinea lose against DRC, the Taifa will only need a draw at home against the West Africans to seal a second successive qualification. With both teams needing a win to keep up their hopes, it’s all to play for on Saturday and potentially on Tuesday as well.
Games to watch
Ethiopia vs Tanzania: Saturday 16th, 16:00 GMT
Guinea vs DRC: Saturday 16th, 19:00 GMT
Tanzania vs Guinea: Tuesday 19th, 16:00 GMT
It will be a fun round of matches!