Gone but not forgotten

The African sides all exit the Club World Cup in disappointing fashion, but they certainly left their mark on the competition

Gone but not forgotten

The African sides all exit the Club World Cup in disappointing fashion, but they certainly left their mark on the competition

Ahead of the Club World Cup, African sides entered the tournament full of hope, bravado and confidence, each of the four clubs feeling like they could defy expectations. Instead, Al Ahly, Mamelodi Sundowns, Espérance Tunis and Wydad Casablanca are returning to Africa with their tails between their legs, firmly put in their place.

With the help of Opta’s supercomputer, let’s look at how the four clubs did compared to what was expected of them.

Al Ahly

The Real Madrid of Africa, The Club of the Century, the ultimate winners. Al Ahly came into the tournament with a lot confidence. Despite a relatively poor season, they had made some tremendous signings ahead of the tournament. Zizo, Trezeguet, Fathy, Dieng, Ben Romdhane all joined or rejoined the club and with one of the best coaches in Africa, José Riveiro, brought in, Al Ahly looked set to establish themselves against Europe’s elite.

While expectations in Egypt and Africa were high, less was expected of them elsewhere. Al Ahly entered the group favourites to come last in the group. Opta’s supercomputer game them a 32.4% chance of coming bottom of the group behind Inter Miami, Palmeiras and Porto.

But while they were predicted to come bottom, the group was seen as the most even group at the tournament. Although seen as the weakest of the four teams in the group, Al Ahly still were given a 41.1% chance of getting out of the group.

And so statistically, Al Ahly coming bottom of the group is not a big disappointment, but anyone who watched the three games will tell you that disappointment is the word of the day.

For Al Ahly, more than any other team at this tournament, it all hinged on one moment. That moment of course was the penalty against Inter Miami.

When Trezeguet took the ball from Wessam Abou Ali to take the penalty he made himself the story above and beyond the team. Unfortunately for him and Al Ahly, he missed that penalty. If he had scored, with Al Ahly already well on top of Miami, it would be a very safe to assume they would have won that game.

Whether or not that win would’ve spurred them on to beat Palmeiras and Porto is pure speculation, but those three points would have been enough by themselves to turn the tide of the group and see Al Ahly going out of the group.

Of all the African teams, they will be most disappointed with their performance at the Club World Cup.

Espérance

They were comprehensively outplayed by Flamengo and then beaten 3-0 by a Chelsea team in second gear and yet Espérance will come away from the Club World Cup pleased with their final placing.

They came into the group off the back of a transitional season with a new and relatively inexperienced team. Their midfield three of Abderahmane Konate, Onuche Ogbelu and Khalil Guenichi had an average age of just under 21 and had collectively only played 6 seasons of top flight football.

Espérance were given just a 20.9% chance of getting out of this group and had a 40.9% chance of coming bottom of the group. They were expected to lose every single game and at best could’ve hoped for a draw against Americans LAFC.

And so with almost nothing to play for against Flamengo and Chelsea, Espérance’s Club World Cup essentially hinged on their performance against LAFC. And let’s not equivocate these teams in their profile and standing. While Espéranceis a giant of African football and have a rich legacy, spanning over 100 years. LAFC are the big hitters financially. The Californians’ average yearly spend sits around $140 million per year and are valued at $1.25 billion. Meanwhile Espérance’s yearly budget is closer to the region of $15-$20 million.

But for all the millions that LAFC can throw at World Cup winners like Olivier Giroud and Hugo Lloris, they don’t have a player quite like Youcef Belaïli. The Algerian was at his iconic best, both against Flamengo and LAFC and in trademark fashion, also got a booking in both games meaning he was suspended for the final group match.

Espérance didn’t light up the tournament, but they were not expected to and can come away from the tournament with their heads held high.

Mamelodi Sundowns

Masandawana did what they did best at this tournament, wowing us with brilliant football. They were everyone’s second team as they took on German giants Borussia Dortmund and outplayed them.

Unfortunately for the world of football fans that were being given their first taste of Sundowns’ fandom, they were given the full Sundowns’ treatment. Sundowns are excellent, they play great football and are a lovely watch, but at the end of the day they often leave a tournament empty handed.

Sundowns were also the only African side to come into the tournament as favourites to get out of their group. Opta’s supercomputer had the Brazilians going through in 47.1% of their simulations. With Dortmund nearly guaranteed to go through, Fluminense had the next best after Sundowns at 39.4%

Sundowns came so close to getting through. They shouldn’t have lost against Borussia Dortmund and against a Fluminense side that was playing for a draw from kick off on matchday three, Sundowns created the chances to win it. If they had scored another goal in either of those games, they would have gone through.

Masandawana averaged 64.9% possession in the group stage, only being outdone by PSG, Man City, Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. They kept two clean sheets from three games and were by far the best of the African sides at the Club World Cup.

But when we considered what was expected of this team at this tournament, their Club World Cup performance was arguably the worst of all the African clubs given what they could and should have achieved.

Wydad Casablanca

The Red Castle came into this tournament as by far the worst African team and they are leaving the tournament with that reputation intact. They did well in losing 2-0 to Manchester City in their first game and a 4-1 loss to Juventus was very respectable after the Italians had thrashed Al Ain 5-0.

But it was the 2-1 loss in their final game that was the real mark on Wydad’s card. They were predicted by the Opta supercomputer to beat the Emirati side. Al Ain were considered one of the worst sides coming into the tournament and backed that up by letting in 11 goals in their first two games.

When Casius Mailula gave the Moroccans the lead in Washington D.C., it looked like Wydad would indeed salvage their tournament and end on a strong note. Instead, they crumbled in the second half as Al Ain powered past them.

Unlike the other African sides, Wydad’s underlying numbers make for even worse reading than their performances. Wydad conceded more xG than any other team aside from amateur side Auckland City. Five teams finished the Club World Cup without a point and of those, only Urawa Red Diamonds had a worse goal difference. Of the 32 teams at the Club World Cup, Wydad were the second worst.

Wydad were also the only African side to be knocked out after only two games and their final performance against Al Ain, on the last day of the group stage of the tournament signed off Africa’s tournament with a performance that perfectly summed up the African clubs at the Club World Cup.

As a continent we showed flashes, outplayed teams and showed that African football is a force to be taken seriously. However the four clubs showed that Africa is ultimately some way off the best of Europe and South America.

Hopefully the second lesson learned is that if African clubs want to compete at this level, they have to prepare accordingly. This Al Ahly squad, with a year under the tutelage of José Riveiro, would have been well placed to top their group, let alone get out of it. If Espérance hadn’t gone through four coaches this year, maybe they could’ve snatched a draw against Flamengo or Chelsea and snuck out of the group. Maybe if Sundowns were still coached by Rhulani Mokwena or if Miguel Cardoso had a full season to prepare, they would have both outplayed and beaten Dortmund. Maybe if Wydad hadn’t been run like a basket case for years and their owner arrested for drug trafficking they could have entered this tournament as a powerful team that built off the successes of Walid Regragui’s 2022 Champions League success.

For now, the teams will have to settle for the millions of dollars they’ve made in the US and fight over the next three seasons to return to this stage along with Pyramids who have already booked their 2029 ticket.